The ongoing conflict in Ukraine serves as a stark reminder for nations like Australia: the potential for war in the Asia-Pacific region is a very real concern.
As the sun rises over the vast 32 Tactical air base in Łask, Poland, the crisp autumn air carries a sense of urgency. A group of Australian personnel are preparing to conclude their mission, having deployed an E-7 Wedgetail surveillance aircraft to assist NATO's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"You can feel the tension here," our guide remarks, tapping his chest as a squadron of F16 fighter jets rev their engines, their roar piercing the morning calm.
Vladimir Putin's war has sent shockwaves through Europe, and as the European Union and NATO brace for a prolonged conflict, senior officials are sending a clear message: the war in Europe has heightened the likelihood of conflict in the Indo-Pacific, and countries like Australia must be ready.
Lieutenant Colonel Grzegorz Langowski, in charge of the Łask base, worked closely with the Australian crew operating the Wedgetail, a plane brimming with top-secret technology. It reportedly conducted over 45 missions, including surveillance over critical supply routes into Ukraine, and was active when Russian aircraft encroached into Estonian airspace earlier this year.
The relentless drone attacks directed by Moscow have left EU nations on high alert.
"Australia was the first non-NATO country to offer assistance," Langowski explains. "Cooperation and shared tactics are vital. The world is interconnected, and our strategies must consider not just Poland and Ukraine, but also the impact on countries like China and Australia."
As tentative peace negotiations led by US President Donald Trump continue, with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy resisting pressure to accept unfavorable terms, Langowski expresses a desire for further deployments of Australian assets, including the Wedgetail.
The EU is developing plans for a "drone wall" defense system to counter the growing threat of drone incursions. Russia's persistent targeting of Ukrainian regions with drones and missiles has disrupted energy and port infrastructure.
Andrius Kubilius, former Lithuanian Prime Minister and now EU Defense Chief, warns that member states have been slow to recognize the dangers of drone warfare. Kubilius, who will guide a new defense partnership between the EU and Albania, urges countries like Australia to rapidly enhance their capabilities.
"Drone attacks are a new type of warfare," Kubilius emphasizes. "You don't need tanks or artillery to occupy territory. Drones can terrorize neighboring countries, disrupting strategic infrastructure."
Drones are also being used in what Europe considers a hybrid threat war, targeting civilian infrastructure and borders beyond the battlefield, including incidents in Germany, Denmark, and Norway.
"The lesson from Ukraine is clear," Kubilius states. "We must not only learn to build drones, but also create an entire ecosystem. Drones become obsolete every two months as adversaries find ways to destroy or jam them. It's a constant arms race."
Australia is already boosting its capabilities, with plans to spend at least $10 billion on drone systems over the next decade. The government recently announced a $1 billion purchase of six Ghost Bat drones with a range exceeding 3,700km.
When NATO scrambled fighter jets to intercept Russian drones over Poland in September, it was Lieutenant General Maciej Klisz, Operational Commander of the Polish Armed Forces, who took charge. It marked the first time since World War II that Polish troops mobilized against a threat to their homeland.
Klisz met with Vice Admiral Justin Jones, his Australian counterpart, that same week.
"We agreed that our playbooks are aligned," Klisz says. "Russia is not the only threat. While Moscow is close, we view it in a broader context, and China cannot be ignored."
As Russia tests NATO's collective defense clause, known as Article Five, through diverse tactics, Klisz warns that the weaponization of maritime routes and targeting of strategic assets could be replicated by other countries, including in the Indo-Pacific. Australian defense officials recently tracked a Chinese flotilla heading towards Australia, less than a year after a naval task group caused alarm by unexpectedly circumnavigating the country.
Poland may join the massive Talisman Sabre military exercise in Australia, designed to enhance combat readiness and interoperability with overseas forces, including the US. Both countries are also part of the F35 stealth fighter jet network.
Klisz welcomes Australia's involvement in the coalition of the willing, countries supporting Ukraine during and after the war.
"Our cooperation with Australia, despite the distance, is growing stronger," he says.
China's involvement in the war, alongside North Korea and Iran, is a concern for European leaders. Robert Kupiecki, Poland's Undersecretary of State and Security Advisor to the Prime Minister, emphasizes the interconnectedness of international security, urging EU members to strengthen ties with Australia.
"If a conflict arises in your region, involving our American allies, it will directly affect us. China and Russia cooperate strategically, and the potential for parallel conflicts in Europe and the Pacific is high."
Australia's Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, has emphasized that Russia and its partners should take note of the international community's resolve against the invasion of Ukraine. Like Europe, Australia's foreign policy is committed to pushing back against aggression and upholding the UN Charter.
"We want a region where sovereignty is respected, where no one country dominates," Wong states. "This strategic balance is crucial for Australia's identity and our aspirations."
Individual EU countries are already taking action, implementing various Indo-Pacific-focused strategies.
Marc Abensour, a career diplomat, leads France's engagement in the Indo-Pacific. His office in Paris displays a large map spanning from eastern Africa to French Polynesia.
"France, and the EU, are committed to a rules-based order," Abensour says. "We aim to avoid a division of the world into spheres of influence."
Abensour believes managing tensions and avoiding conflict should be a priority, particularly around Taiwan and the Korean peninsula. France's rejection of "spheres of influence" may signal a potential divergence from Trump's administration, which has cited protection of the Western hemisphere as part of its recent arrest of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
"After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we've witnessed a global increase in strategic disinhibition," Abensour concludes. "It's not limited to Europe, and its impact is far-reaching."
Tom McIlroy traveled to Europe as a recipient of the EU-Qantas journalism prize.
